OPINION - CONSTRUCTION

Hindsight from 2050: the Hunter's sliding doors moment

In 2050, the NSW Productivity Commission is assessing the impact of its 2024 Review of Housing Supply Challenges.

That review argued housing construction was being crowded out by public infrastructure. It recommended governments reprioritise civil projects to free up workforce capacity for housing, and invest in infrastructure that unlocks new homes, quicker, in high-feasibility areas.

Successive governments took the Commission’s advice. In the short to medium term, NSW housing supply improved.

Investment in local infrastructure like roads and utilities enabled supply. But marginal feasibilities for dense infill under Government’s Transport Oriented Development (TOD) program saw development preferencing greenfields to hit housing targets.

Major education, health and public transport projects were deferred. New communities became car dependent, disconnected from jobs, education and services. Socioeconomic disadvantage increased, productivity declined.

Stronger feasibilities sucked development to Sydney metro. Communities who needed housing in less feasible areas missed out, including the Upper Hunter with low rental vacancy rates.

New governments inherited a backlog of deferred major projects, beyond the limits of budget and election cycles. Costs had escalated, and the opportunity value of benefits these projects could have delivered, sooner, was lost.

At the same time, the construction workforce proved less interchangeable than expected. Civil infrastructure and residential construction required different skillsets, equipment and delivery timeframes. As large projects dried up, workers across blue- and white-collar roles were laid off. With construction the third-largest employment sector in NSW, the economy contracted.

When governments secured a big build mandate, business and workforce lacked capacity to gear up and deliver. The boom bust cycle gave sugar hits, but volatility eroded business confidence while driving up project costs.

The 2050 NSW Productivity Commission concluded its predecessor had sought quick housing solutions during a time of crisis. But at a high cost for the long-term productivity, equity and sustainability of NSW.

In advising the path forward, the Commission looked to the Hunter for leadership.

As a region accustomed to self-determination by necessity, local leadership collaborated to meet strong demand for construction across all sectors including housing, defence, transport and clean energy. These were engines to the diversification of the economy from coal, where change had seen the Hunter grow investment and jobs, not shrink.

By the mid-2030s, the Hunter was a national leader in construction innovation. Local manufacturers, research institutes and firms pioneered modular housing and commercialised the large-scale use of coal ash from regional power stations in certified, affordable building materials—a world-first for sustainable construction. Coordinated procurement across Hunter councils created reliable demand for these innovations, backed by standardised specifications, unified construction codes, consistent planning frameworks, and streamlined digital approvals. This collaboration cut costs and carbon while positioning the Hunter as a key supplier of housing solutions nationally.

In a plan for the Hunter’s transition from coal industries, all three levels of government endorsed a program of economic and social infrastructure that spurred private investment. This included upgrades at Newcastle Airport, adaptive reuse of post-mining lands and power stations, and redevelopment of Port of Newcastle into a clean energy hub.

With a predictable, multi-decade construction pipeline, local businesses had certainty to invest in training and apprenticeships. Skilled workers, drawn by strong demand and a quality-of-life Sydney could no longer offer, relocated to the region. Flagship firms like Milleen Group drove productivity gains through investments in advanced machinery, automation and modern construction processes. Through industry bodies such as HunterNet and the Newcastle Master Builders Association, advances were shared, enabling smaller firms to participate, scale and compete.

Resisting State policies that incentivise housing on prime lands, Lake Macquarie City Council transformed underutilised ex-industrial sites into integrated commercial precincts with jobs, transit, and amenities close to homes.

The Commonwealth committed to High Speed Rail with a station at Broadmeadow. Master planning under the Hunter Central Coast Development Corporation saw an integrated approach to planning, land use and infrastructure over a 30-year program, providing the steady pipeline industry needed.

The Hunter delivered more than its share of NSW housing targets with our innovations servicing a national housing market. State productivity was boosted, equity outcomes and quality of life for residents improved.

The region met construction demand across all engine sectors, heralding a new economic boom in the Hunter and NSW.

A sliding doors moment. One clear choice to build better.

Co-authored by: Andrew Stones (GM, Milleen Group) & Alice Thompson (CEO, CftH)